Joe Cecil

Statistical independence is weird to think about

Random variables are one of the basic concepts of statistical theory. They're everywhere. You can't escape them. They're the core of how we think about "sampling." A common assumption is that we have a sequence or family of independent and identically distributed

An abstract paragraph

In fiction, abstract bits are (ideally) sort of unsual. Not unsual at the level of books or stories, but at the level of sentences or paragraphs. Many stories have some abstract bits. Usually (I think) these bits make up only a small fraction of the overall text. But sometimes these

Octopath Traveler's combat system: "Breaking"

I have been playing Octopath Traveler lately, owing to a certain sale and recommendations from two friends. The combat in this game flows very nicely, and I want to understand why. Here's a rough overview of how combat works. In Octopath Traveler encounters you control a party of

Sifting

I sometimes find myself sifting detritus from a (digital) stream. That means browsing Reddit, Twitter, a Discord, and collecting links back to the things I saw and thought were interesting. I can spend hours on this at a time. The odd thing is that I rarely ever refer back to

Random variables and forgetting formal structure

A strange thing about statistics is that it is full of functions – mapping relationships – where we don't care what the mapping relationship is. The most basic objects defined in statistical theory are random variables. These are defined as functions from some sample space \(\Omega\) to the set of

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